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The Future of Marketing


Rishad Tobaccowala

Advertising industry legend Rishad Tobaccowala shares his perspective on the future after 30+ years as head of strategy at globe-spanning agency Publicis. In the next phase of digital transformation, he envisions marketing and design encompassing every aspect of a business, from product to store to customer experience, because “everything else will be highly automated.” Check out this energetic dialog for insight about how organizations and markets will evolve.  You’ll also learn Rishad’s technique for forecasting long-term trends. Visit rishadtobaccowala.com , join his newsletter https://rishad.substack.com/ and follow him on Twitter @rishad.

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[Music] this week on the futuriststhe long-term impact of kobe on society so i basically believe that the impactof kobe will change life forever there's no ever going back to december2019 and there i think from a human perspective so i have written something i called the jigsaw of returnwhich is why i said people will never go back to the offices and words like remote and hybrid are stupidright they're different words called unbundled and distributed i wrote a piece called return to the office which is now reading board rooms and they saidthis is so simple i said yeah because you're not thinking right and there are three key things i believe the future of work is everyone'sgoing to be a gig worker even if you're working in a company for 37 years full-time you're going to be a gig worker second is you're going to beworking with machines and what you add to the machine will be where your value is not against machines or withoutmachines that's the second component and the third is everything that you do is going to eventually be measured andthose three things mean that most of us are going to become fractionalized employees [Music]well hey brett greetings i see that you're in an airport where are you now the world traveler i'm i'm in calgaryabout to head to miami for another event uh good to be finally getting back on the road no doubt that's true yeahthat's this uh post-pandemic world that i guess we've all decided we're living in you were off in the last time i spoketo you in mauritius i think or was it south africa uh yeah i did a well i did an event in mauritius and then i camehere for an event in calgary um and also had an event in dallas last weekand now miami and then niagara this week so yeah interesting i'm happy you were able to patch in from the airport incalgary uh that's always an awkward thing to do to beat today from an airport lounge super to connect with you againwe'll have to catch up and talk about how the world has changed but before we do that let me introduce this week's guest because we're talkingto someone i've known for a number of years he's a friend of my family he's someone who i respect tremendously andi'm hardly the only one who feels that way we're going to talk to richard tobaccoformerly he was the the the head of strategy at the publicist group and at digitas beforethen and he has a long track word more than 30 years of working for that firm as it grewto worldwide dimension so a true expert in the fields of marketing and advertising and digital media let's givea big welcome to rashad rashad tobacco welcome to the futurists welcome thank you welcome thank you for having mewe're glad you could join us exciting to catch up with you um and as as folks who are listening tothis might know uh you may know rashad through his newsletter and if you're not familiar with it you can find that atRishad Tobaccowala newsletterrashad.substance.com so yet another expert is dipping a toeinto the ocean of newsletters on sub stack and rashad is the author of a book called restoring the soul of businessstaying human in the age of data and i can't think of a better topic for this moment that we're in rashad becauseright now so many people have been struggling with digital media and its intrusions and the way it's disruptedtheir lives you know for years we've been hearing about business disruption but we don't tend to think much aboutThe Third Connected Agehow people's lives and their relationships uh the way they communicate and talk to their friends and family we haven't talked much abouthow that disrupts people and then in this day and age of conversational marketing marketers arealways trying to get a word in edgewise or chime in on that conversation in some fashion give me your perspective if you willright now about the state of play in the world of marketing and advertisingso the state of play is we're about to enter what i call the third connected age um and you know marketing andadvertising has been around a lot for a long long time and i have no doubt that the cavemen painted signs for somethingor the other and you know advertising and marketing tends tomove in tandem with changes in communication technology so as we move from print to radio totelevision we saw those shifts happen but the real significant change occurredaround 1993 when the world wide web came to me andthat's when we entered the first connected age and human beings connected to discover and we connected totransact and those gave rise to businesses which we now call search and e-commerceand that obviously changed not only did it change the world of business giving large companies like amazon and googlebut it changed everything from the newspaper industry which did not you know was hurt by google it basically changedhow we bought things what we expected our expectations in 2007 we entered the second connectedage which built on the first one and this was when as human beingsbecause of technology advancements we could connect to everybody and we could connect all the time we call that socialand mobile and that in addition to giving rice the powerhouses of companies like apple andmeta basically change society as we know it which is the mobile phone became the keydevice with which we interact with the world we spent a lot of time in social media it changed the way elections were heldit changed society it gave dramatic shifts to self-harm among girls but at the verysame stage it allowed you to connect with friends you never knew all around the world and that was pretty dramaticwe have now entered the third connected age and these build on each other and this third connected age has fournew forms of connection and these that describe moreless as in people uh but more in some form of like connection in technology because ihaven't just figured out the exact people alignment but these are the four one iswe're going to see much faster connections and that's the world of 5gthe second is we're going to basically see new ways to connect so we're going to already have voicewhich is scaled up and we're going to see augmented reality and virtual reality we're going to basically see dataconnecting to data which is machine learning which is ai which is already scalingand then we're going to basically have new ways to find trust connections whichis blockchain so you take trust connections much faster forms of connecting new ways ofconnecting right and machine learning ai which is data connecting to data and i believe all theshifts and changes we have seen in this first between 1993 and 2023 let's say 20 years for 30 yearsis just a precursor of some crazy stuff that's about to come and so i'm spending a lot of time guiding boards guidingpeople because i'm trying to explain what i call the future of the internet i don't describeit as web3 metaverse nft dowse i talk about the future of the internetand how these things fit in the future of the internet so it's going to be a very unusual timeand what you're now seeing clearly is some human elements of everything from you know war and change and diseasenew ways of working combined with underlying new technologies okay that's a great opening statementand what a vision uh so you've talked about the three different phases of three waves of connectivity we're at thebeginning of this third wave so it's a little hard to predict or anticipate exactly how it's gonna unfold but you identified a number of the underlyingtechnologies that everybody listening is familiar with we can certainly delve into those but one of the big thingsthat's happening right now like this month in may of 2022 is that we're reelingfrom the aftermath of a big shock to the system uh you know 2021 was a stellaryear in terms of venture capital investment in terms of startup companies valuations for businesses and of coursethe tech sector performed brilliantly last year but all that seemed to come to an end at the beginning of this year andit's this sort of toxic combination of war and pandemic recession or uhinflation uh that caused investorsbasically yeah the supply chain disruptions from the pandemic all of that caused the investors to get skittish about future growth in the techsector and so we saw nasdaq plummeted losing about 25 of its valuationand anytime there's any kind of reaction like that a downturn which we've seen many of in the last 15 years um thefirst thing to go is marketing budgets so how do you expect that this is going to affect marketing budgets here on onehand you describe this grand vision and training on the other hand we've got this disruption in the marketplacehow do you see that playing out yes here's the following the first is the stuff that i described haslittle to do with marketing or advertising it's just the way the world works rightand in effect i would basically believe that what you're going to see is specifically to marketing andadvertising you are not going to see the same decline as you've seen in the pastyes people are going to cut budgets uber today announced that they're cutting their marketing advertising budget a lot of people dobut what they often basically you know sort of recognize is there arethree key things that are happening right now the first one is marketing has become much more aboutMarketing is more about experienceexperiences and much more about purpose and values then it's aboutsaying something about the brand and to me if you spend money designing a betterproduct if you spend money on better customer service and stronger employeesyou actually have a stronger brand so my basic belief is marketingis everything so for all purposes and that is increasingly going to be the differentiator because to a certainextent almost everything else we do is being automated away really really fastright the future finance is being highly automated the future of accounting has been you've seen the future of a lot ofthings on the other hand and that's the central premise of my book and the central premise of what i remind peoplewe choose with our hearts and we use numbers to justifyis we choose with our hearts and we use numbers to justify what we just didif that wasn't true none of us would be born our parents would have computed roi on childhood and said it doesn't workokay if you wear a watch and it's why do you wear a watch your phone has a bettertime keeper if you wear a watch and it's not a swatch why are you paying that much money if you're driving a car whyare you driving anything more expensive than a toyota camry why do 120 billion dollars which is greater than advertisedthen everything that's basically spent in television subscriptions cable subscriptions and moviego to skinning your characters and games right is wehumans are analog carbon-based feeling people yes we're living in a data driven silicon digital ageand to differentiate yourself i remind people the companies that today people celebrate whether it's an apple or lvmhleave a ton more hennessy do not separate themselves on price do not separate themselves on dataright they separate themselves on marketing all kinds of marketing designstorytelling provenance right so more and more businesses are recognizing thatit's that will advertising specifically be kept probably not measurable will probably be cut but i think overallmarketing will be fine because in effect marketing is the way companies differentiate themselves and in a worldtoday where anybody can click away one step from the other it's very hard to differentiate just on pricei i was going to ask you actually about this experience design competency youknow um a lot of what you're talking about in terms of engagement and so forth you know we we talk about thatmore broadly is interaction design or experience design um but for a lot of traditionalorganizations this is a brand new competence and and previously they would have relied on agencies for that but theway you talk about it this is now sort of a core set of skills for most organizations to haveum you know have you helped organizations through that transition of understanding thatyou know now they own these digital interactions they own these experiencestheir customers are having and need to be much more connected to that yes absolutely and they are recognizing itbecause part of it is i have the opportunity to speak with a lot of very senior management and they've begun to recognize that whatthey consider to be the customer journey is now a journey that isn't just abouttelling someone and they buy a product and you measure it um it is to your point everything fromexperience design to product design to usage design to the way customer service interacts with them to the way yourstores are designed whether where your website are designed um so they definitely recognize that andthey have a lot of those capabilities of building those capabilities both in-house but because of the skills theyneed and the scale at which they need it they also then turn to a lot of outside partners you know whether it be whatused to be the original big design agencies like the ideas and frog designs or other modern agencies um or differentcompanies so yes they're clearly thinking about that and in fact a lot of what i speak to them about that is that because theirthe journey has changedbasic belief is that the journey has changed and a simple example is this and we do this all the time and i give thisas an example and for anybody who doesn't believe it once they understand this example say oh my god you're rightwhich is the other day a few months ago i was trying to be cool so i was sitting outside a place waitingfor my wife on tick tock okay which i normally don't use so i was looking around and i said okay oh there's aninteresting thing uh i it was basically a video of a new kind of basic um usb kind of thingthat was available for sale and they said would you like to buy it and i said yes and they basically said hey would you like to get it delivered or would youlike to pick it up from your local target store and i happen to be like less than two blocks from the local target store so i clicked local targetsi went to the target store i bought the product i came home okay now the way we are organized and the waywe think about it what was that was that above the line because i saw anad or was it below the line because i bought a product was it marketing which is what the adbudget is or was it sales which was the store had this at end displaywas it offline or was it online was it mobile was it e-commerce was it socialand as a that's the reason my sub stack is called the future does not fit in the containers of the pasteverything we think about customer journey the way people interact the way people expect is completely differentand in order of that you have to reorganize your company's parts around a new spineuh and a lot of that is the sort of the future of marketing and you mentioned toa great extent that i spent time at publicis and and the key thing that i always remind people is i spent 37 yearsi still advise them but i spent 37 years at publicis in 2005 2006 working withthe leadership i built a case that we needed to be even more digital than we were and at that time we were prettydigital i had companies that i was founded and ran and that's when we purchased a companycalled digitas right which owned modem and a bunch of other things then we rapidly bought other companiesso when i left uh publicis uh as a full-time employee uh to stop the secondcareer i looked back to see three numbers right and i said okay what company did iwas i had 20 years ago and what company am i at today so besides the company is much larger ilooked at what percent of the revenue came from digital what percent of the revenue came from advertisingand what the people mix was and the digital went basically from sixpercent to 63 percent the what advertising which you think abouttelevision and radio advertising went from 75 percent to 28 and the number of engineers we hadamong our team went from 35 to 18 000.that's the future of marketing it isn't necessarily ads right so yes they will cut a lot ofstuff but they're not gonna con in today's power if i define marketing as understanding and meeting customerrequirements and all of us are customers or consumers and we have massive powerif you are not gonna align your company to meet us how you're to sell stuff richardi mean just even using above the line below the line terminology it sort of indicates umas you and i both experience that for big ad firms like publicist the bigfour um you know wpp and so forth they really struggled in the early daysof digital to break out of those those buckets ofbehavior because of the way they thought about ad creation and so forth umyou know you were right in the midst of that so um tell me about the cultural fight of of getting um you know digitaladvertising and digital engagement uh to become that primacyso i've written a thing which is there's a six-pack you need to drink if you want change to happen the change that youlook at you have to have six different cans of something maybe perrier okay butyou need six of them the first three uh which you know you've lived through brett and we will livethrough which are very important is you need to have a strategy and i define strategy as future competitive advantageso you have to have a vision of how people will be who will be competing and what your clients want because youthen have to make decisions financial and other decisions the second usually at that stage youhave to recognize that you need things you don't have so that's usually m a andover the years i was there we did about 10 billion dollars of m a okay so that's you bring in additional companiesadditional mindsets additionally etc the third thing that you basically needis some form of reorganization so you have to reorganize no don't no longer think about above the line below theline offline online so to reorganize that those three are very very difficult to dounfortunately when you do those three you still haven't succeeded and this is to your point you need number four number five and number sixyou know the last five six years promises has paid a lot of attention to all of these they're all there but theypay particular attention to four five six so four is why is this good for the peoplewhich is why is this good these changes good for me who may have joined a company that was different thanwhat i believe doing different things and the most important reason it's good for you is because you will be relevantin the future versus being irrelevant number five is how our incentive is going to changeso what began to happen is we changed incentives and you know to a great extent when i washelping build some of the digital operations there were times when i had no clients no employees but i wasn'tpaid differently i was paid very well because we no longer basically paid people on client control or how manytroops they had or how many old things they sold which is very important and the sixth and most important is whereas thetraining program how do you build people with new skill sets including management and that's a few notes what i'm stilldoing which is once a week or once a month for five days for two hours i am in the mca of a global training programfor us so those all are needed so very much to your point there's the hard stuff which is by the way not easy whichis strategy m a and reorg and then the soft stuff which is goddamn hard whichis people you know michael tyson was supposed to have said this but i think it's joe lewis that everybody's got aplan until they get punched in the face what i've learned is that every leader and board has a strategy but people getin the way yeah that's true now listen rashad let's take a quickbreak um i'd like to you know dive into the forecasting stuffafter the break uh you know what comes next um you know that that's that's the reallysexy stuff you're listening to the futurists myself and bob turcheckwe are talking to richard tobacco he is the author of restoring the soulof business staying human in the age of data we'll be right back after this breakwelcome to breaking banks the number one global fintech radio show and podcasti'm brett king and i'm jason henricks every week since 2013 we explored the personalitiesstartups innovators and industry players driving disruption in financial servicesfrom incumbents to unicorns and from cutting edge technology to the people using it to help create a moreinnovative inclusive and healthy financial future i'm jp nichols and thisis breaking banks [Music]okay welcome back from break you're listening to the futurists with brett king and myself robert tursek and ourguest this week is richard tobacco who has been sharing with us some of themethodologies he's been using in more than 30 years as ahead of strategy forone of the biggest advertising agencies and holding companies on planet earth now today he's focused on training he'sfocused on executive training and that's because just before break he mentioned to us this six part planif you're going to be focused on the future if you want to be successful in your organization in the future you've got to focus on six things as rashadsaid not just strategy and a vision of what you want and an understanding of what you need to acquire through mergersand acquisitions and the plan to reorganize your company for success those are just baseline table stakeshe also points out that if you don't have these other three things a vision of how that's going to benefitthe employees in the future by keeping them relevant some incentives alignment of incentivesso that people are all pulling in the same direction and a training program to ensure successwithout those other three things the first three really aren't going to get you far over shot this really resonates with mebecause i spent many years inside of large organizations where they gave me the portfolio of planning for the futureand strategy and thinking about what comes next i love that subject but what i found is if you can't get therest of the organization in alignment in other words literally if the executive compensation isn't aligned with thosegoals and ideas you're never going to get very far you can make changes around the periphery and you can certainly set up innovationprograms and launch new businesses but you're not going to be able to drag that old machinery of the past into thefuture by yourself it's got to require alignment across the board and that really means that the senior managementhas to come out forcefully i think in favor of the future and and really lean onexecutives to adopt it talk to me a little bit about that part of your program so the three parts of thatprogram that were very important which is leading into the future with both incentives and particularly leadershipwas number one making sure that you understood that certain people in the business weregoing to be focused on making sure we could buildsort of pay the bills today and other people could be focused on making sure we had a tomorrowso andy grove the great andy grove wrote this book called only the paranoid will surviveuh i have ripped off that and created a different title called only the schizophrenic willthrive and what i mean by that is you need to have two teams in a company and not onlyabout skunk works these are two real teams everybody knows about them one very much focused on today and onevery much focused on tomorrow reporting into the same board and the same leadership but with the following threedifferences a they are allowed to run slightly different culturesb they run different incentive programs and three they have different goalsand different tech right so so when i created stock mip with a couple ofcolleagues while i was also involved in creating stockholm what was very clear is that the head ofstockholm ran 600 people i started with two three people she ran 600 people her job was to basically make sure thatwe kept our clients we basically made money with our clients and kept them happy and delivered what we were doingat that time which is work class media planning and medium i my job was to ensure that when clientsbasically look for digital they do not go to companies like motor media and organic who are specialists in the spacebut show them that a i had the same caliber of talent as those companies a culture that wasbuilt around that kind of people with that kind of technology and somewhere along i even left the building so acompany i created or helped create was a company called giant step where i took the name of leo banette i went into asort of loft in greek town we grew that company to 120 people we would beateverybody and we put basically companies like united and mcdonald's on the webright and they looked at everyone else but in effect what i had done in that we had done hybrids on me but we had donewas basically create very much two companies each with a culture technologygoals but focused on the same ultimate thing which is happy andsatisfied clients but the reason why that also worked is if a client wanted what i was doing they hadto pay differently than if they wanted to buy television and radio because the economics were different butat the same stage i showed that these were different people with different skill sets and by the way we were not any more expensive than otherspecialists we were more expensive than a media buying and planning company and that's not because we were any betterbut what we did was the the way it got done was differently our fees relative to what they call workingnon-working media was different right so but what was important was theleadership so i was incented to make sure so that thatrene mccann did not lose clients because of digital so my job was credibility with clientskeep clients happy and also by the way one of our differentiating advantages i can highly integrate into everythingelse you are doing which is 95 of your budgets right but i'm going to give you world class 5but i can integrate it much easier with 95 and we were both incented and we bothknew each other's incentives were different and she let me she gave me clients she let me raid someof her people right but in the end what we recognized was at some stage in the futurei would drop ip or i would drop giant step and it would be back to the mothership when the things fused andthere was a way to do it so any there wasn't any competition right there wasn't like this person basically saidyou're like and anybody in today was allowed to work for tomorrow if they were competent so even said youryesterday and your you know the tomorrow so all of those cultural things i've learned over theyears but it's all those three things which is make sure you have a culture why it'sgood for people incentive and also explain so someone who's buying television explain to them why whatthey're doing is currently very important for both the future and how i would go to them and say by the waytelevision is going to become like this so we're going to provide you training as television becomes like this and as part of it if you'd like to spend a fewmonths here come on over right so um you knowi mean culturally that schizophrenic approach you know i use exactly the same language we'retalking to bankers actually you know but um the challenge i see isonce the digital competency becomes the primary competencyyou you have these organizations um you know both on the ad agency side and theclient side where you know that's a real cultural change i mean it's fine to say let's have thisschizophrenic organization one experimenting with the new stuff and you know encouraging the new skill sets andall of that sort of stuff but ultimately at some point in in the future that becomes the primary organization umyeah and and and that's when you need to have turned the whole shipand that that's a bigger challenge than sort of having a spin-off with digital expertise right yeah so what youeventually do is you do two things at least what we found to this current date you basicallyuh a need to make sure you have world-class skill sets because here's what clientsdo is they buy skills first they buy integration second okayTo win make sure you have world class talentthey want work lost skills so they don't they basically said is i don't want a fantastic integrated dentist and eyedoctor if the two work together that's fine but more importantly if i have two different specialists but i want thebest heart doctor and the best lung doctor i don't want like someone who's half good at both so you need that but to your point it'sbecause we did this over time we had all the senior people and we were very involved and that's the reason i spentmost of my time now with talent we truly began the change that we trulybelieve that the change we were going to do was not going to be about technology m a and strategy it was going to beabout people and it was basically a combination of two thingshow could we upgrade our people or how could we change our people and our basic belief was we would muchprefer upgrading versus changing but it was very clear that over timeright if the jobs in the future is here you have to upgrade your skills and we will provide you opportunities toupgrade or we're going to have to change you uh and that is a very hard decision to makeespecially with very senior other people but that i was fortunate in that we had people like jack lewis and maurice levyand now officer dune who get it that's number one the second is we don't necessarily smoosh everything togetherbecause at any given time there tend to still be needs for things to be differentand the reason why some things have to be different is culture so for instance we still need world-class people who canbuy television very effectively and at the very same stage we need world-class people who can do customerrelationship management very important and we need people who can basically create fantasticstories and experiences utilizing their creativity and art but at the same time media is changingso fast you also need people who are attenuate paying attention to those changes and so they have to be versatilein the future while preserving the past but what basically happens is if you want to if you happen to be aworld-class media buyer it is highly unlikely that you're going to basically say i want to work for a company calledsapient if you're a world-class engineer it's highly unlikely you're going to say i want to work for a company called theovernight right and so what tended to basically happen is we still have all those brands butwe've now created both incentive and budgetary and communication systemswhich we call the power of one which is in effect what we've done is we've got these different companies eachfocusing on and these are companies with five ten fifteen thousand people focusing on these different areas but wehave found ways to combine them in three simple steps which are very difficult took us five years to get it and i'm notsure we're completely there so step number one was a unified p l so everyclient has a unified p l as a result of which any of these individual companies their p l's don'tmatter so if you think you're doing if you if you try to direct money towards your company that you might be runningyou don't get things spread you're only focused on how your country does and how your client does all right just to clarify you're talkingabout the internal companies inside of the holding company so you have a client and the client has one unified budgetand then there might be dozens of internal agencies or other service companies but the leadership basicallygets incentivized at how the clients did and how the country they were can do right and and basically if their branddidn't do very well but the client did well and the country did well fantastic that's what we want so the whole idea isit allows us to move the second one is we basically have an underlying matrix which people laughed at which is calledmarcel which is a system where all 87 000 people can access jobs and opportunities and training worldwideso what basically happens is we we saved many thousand jobs because of covet where there were lots of jobs availableat one time in china right where they didn't have and less jobs available somewhere else so wecould actually move those because of underlying technology so that's another part of power of one i'm connected tosomething completely big which is which is important and the third thing that we basically did to a great extent is wecontinuously remind people that they are working that they're playing for two teams they're playing for very much the teamlike their local rugby team but they're also playing for their country right and eventually the highest levelis if the country wins which is you know publicis obviously the ultimate stuff is obviously without clients win so all ofthose things figuring out how that gets done how people get trained how you put things together country by countryit took us five years wow okay richard i want to shift the focus alittle bit here to forecasting because i know that's something that brett's interested in hearing about it as well you know everything you're talking aboutis reorganizing the business reorganizing the people upskilling the people keeping people current andrelevant and so forth i get that and that's really cool to hear about but all that presupposes that you havean idea of what this future we're preparing for looks like and in a world where we're moving intothings like augmented reality extended reality virtual reality immersive media like 3d world say the metaverse if youwill what is your vision for the future how do you forecast that how do youTen Forecasts for the Next Decade. Looking Backanticipate that how do you put metrics around that so the way i uh let you knowwhat i think the future is but the way i come at it and havetended to be relatively good in that 10 years ago i wrote a piece called 10 predictions for the next 10years which i will share with you and 10 years later all 10 predictions were rightin fact a lot of people said did you write this a year or two ago because there were things like climate changethings about purpose things about you know esg things about diversity i had put downokay and people said it's impossible you wrote this 10 years ago i did and then the following week i wrote here's myprediction for the next 10 years which i will also send you so we'll see 10 years from now if that's trueso how do you do it the three things that i do the first thing that i do is i read a lot ofdifferent dots which is i talk to lots of people read lots of people attend lots of conferences and today do virtualso i used to go to ted and i do the i i get all of dead and i just watch it okayi read across every type of media i just and i cross categories so as much as i mightread about technology i read poetry i read you know i watch movies i do all kindsI believe it's connecting dots in new ways that shows you the futureof things because i truly believe it's connecting dots in new ways that shows you the future but you need to get asmany dots as you possibly can and those dots could be people etc that's one the second thing that i do is i try tomake sure that whatever those dots are and whatever i come up with do they align with trends which i believe areunstoppable or are they opposed to trends that are unstoppable if they counter unstoppable trends i think theyTrends that are unstoppablewon't last so what are some of these trends that i think are completely unstoppablemultipolar globalization unstoppable okay one two agreetwo now with the exception of africa my next comment on demographics is everything but africathe world is getting older and the population is starting to shrinkokay uh outside of africa um the thirdis um technology which i mentioned the third connected age at the beginning we talkedabout first second and third connected ages that's the third the fourth is the long-term impact of kobed on societyso i basically believed that the impact of kobed will change life foreverthere's no ever going back to december 2019. and there i think from a humanperspective so i have written something i call the jigsaw of return which is why i said people will never goback to the offices and words like remote and hybrid are stupid right they're different words called unbundledand distributed i wrote a piece called return to the office which is now read in board rooms and they said this is so simple i said yeah because i'm thinkingright and there are three key things i believe the future of work is everyone's going to be a gig worker even if you'reworking in a company for 37 years full-time you're going to be a gig worker second is you're going to be workingwith machines and what you add to the machine will be where your value is not against machines or without machinesthat's the second component and the third is everything that you do is going to eventually be measured and thosethree things mean that most of us are going to become fractionalized employees do you think do you think we're going tobe on ubi richard i don't know if we're going to be on that but to a great extent you know there are different components of thatthat are tending to happen there's someone who basically said instead of university ubi we may want to thinkabout ubs and ubs is um universal basic servicesright and i do believe that to solve for some of what the future of work and some of the issues we have the four servicesthat this gentleman proposed i believe they probably are all true the three that i truly believe in and the fourthone i didn't think about the first one is you're going to eventually have access to health care that is portableit doesn't be linked to a company because i can do what i can do because i got grandfathered into my company'sthing so i don't have to worry right it's a very u.s it's a very u.s it's a u.s thing but butbut basically you need better healthcare that's number one second is you basically need some formof access to transportation and education right so my basic belief isyou need to basically have enough your body has to be healthy you need to be able to move from place to placewhere you have a job right and you need to be educated and continuously educated so i believe thoseare absolutely true now my basic belief is i don't know how universal basic income will work but if it doesn't workinto do one of to help those three then we're wasting a lot of money we tried by the way a form of universal basic incomeat covet and that went into basically a lot of things that had nothing to do with improving people's lives right uhand and so what basically happens is i think there's something like that that might happen but those are the and sothe people think so eventually my final thing is i believe that many of usare as human beings we're always living in the real world but the real world isn'tnecessarily just the physical world it's also the digital world that history has shown we'respending more and more of our time in the digital world and we basically get a lot of happiness whether it isconnections flow or joy coming from the digital world as much as we come from the analog world as a result i amanticipating that we will spend more and more of our time right inthis world which combines the two and so a lot of what i'm now suggesting to people is think of no longeryou know uh this this idea of basically being on the channelright uh which people do on the media my basic belief is every brand every marketor every individual has to think about omnipresence uh and and and one of the reasons is youand i live primarily in our minds and we are going to basically have differentbodies both in the real world which will be augmented with all kinds of technology but we will also have acompletely different body right in the future world of whether it's augmented reality in virtual reality so ibasically made 10 of those predictions are where this is going and one of my biggest predictions isthe our struggle today is because all the ways we are governed are set up bysystems that are post-world war two before the internet took off and that's the struggle we're having in the worldyeah it is a paradigm shift uh just before we finish up because we've got a few minutes left but you know um let's let's take thatand run with it you know so this these virtual or mixed reality worlds these hybrid digital physical worlds you knowone of the core technologies we're going to see over the next few years is these head mounted displays or smart glassesum you know advertising um you know when when we looked at the webthere were two major forms of new types of advertising that emerged for the internet one was um you know uh brochureware or websites initially um and then the second was banner ads umyou know and so we've often tried to fit you know print ads or tv commercialsinto these new formats but smart glasses present an extraordinary opportunity forbrands to be contextual but if they just go with you know sort of a broad broadcast typemessaging in those instances i feel like we're going to blow that medium so umhow do you think um you know that the era of data and hyper personalizationand targeting how might that actually be reflected in brand relationships in insmart glasses in an augmented reality setting yeah so so you know my belief is there will be smart losses uh at somestage but these those they'll have to be such that they'll be we would have to put them on and putthem off like i have an oculus quest too which i like a lot but basically it's i barely use it because it's like youshould put it on and you know it's usually much more sort of the all google glasses though they were tracking likeon very reality so there are three areas today the economist has a great story uh in their science section about variablesand where variables are taking off so i think first would be variables but to your pointi basically say hey look the biggest thing in this particular world is you can bring the experience to the personso today you know if you're a hotel don't advertise you basically say hey look if you'd like to feel what it lookslike to basically be in my resort or in my room check in here right uh so if i believe if brands areabout experiences all of these things are going to find new ways to create experiencesand it's going to be experiences versus advertising because now people don't necessarily do banners or brochure where people don't necessarily go to people'swebsites right uh and and so what extended to happen is people are nowarchitecting the other thing that's happened that's very different is remember at least from the timei met i started bringing clients onto america online to today it's 30 years which is two generationsthe people who are now in various industries are completely comfortable with this they're not like old fogiesand doofuses like myself right here to learn this whole thing right digital natives yeah yeah so rashtad um look wereally appreciate you hanging out with us today and giving us some perspective on on the future of the media business ithink you know we could talk about this obviously for a lot longer um uh we've mentioned your book restoring the soulof business staying human in the age of data and your uh your your sub stackwhich is richard but how else can people get in touch with you where can they follow youtwitter linkedin um do you have a personal website yeah so i bought a twitter at richarduh my email is richard gmail.com pretty simple uh on linkedin i've beenresearching back or you can find me but if you google me you'll get to my website which is just my first livesecondname.comuh but there are two things that i would suggest to people who are interested in more of this is because the sub stack iscompletely free you can basically go in there and subscribe and you get something from me but if you decide thati'm going to do some horrible things with your email don't do that either you can just say i want to see the archive and look at it but if you decide youdon't want to do that go to my website and click on thought letter and everything i've done by sub stack isthere and there are two pieces that i would look at relevant to this conversation because it's about futurists is where the three pieces whatis the future how to think about it i've written a piece on how people think about the future every trick i use whichis number one but the other is this is how i predict it for 10 years so there's a 10 trends and then the nextone is the 10 next trends so that will basically 10 years from now we'll see howright i was that's great thank you very much rashad great pleasure to see you again for nowwe'll leave you we'll see you again next week but for now we'll see you in the future[Music] well that's it for the futurists this week if you like the show we sure hopeyou did please subscribe and share it with people in your community and don't forget to leave us a 5 star review thatreally helps other people find the show and you can ping us anytime on instagramand twitter at futurist podcast for the folks that you'd like to see on the show or the questions you'd like usto ask thanks for joining and as always we'll see you in the future [Music]

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